Surrendering the field to the separatists, once again

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As the Alberta referendum is now in advanced voting, I am finding my patience being severely tested as the “Lead Not Leave” crowd continues to rely on the same lies and manufactured grievances that the separatists employ to try and insist that while their grievances are real (they’re not), there is a better solution than separation, such as a federal government that capitulates to their demands. But Justin Trudeau did not cause the oil price crash in 2014, Stephen Guilbeault wasn’t even elected until 2019 and wasn’t environment minister until 2021, none of them did anything to cause capital to flee the country (that was the oil price crash), and the oil companies themselves went along with the plans to reduce emissions, claiming they were committed to the goal (only to relevel that—surprise!—they were lying as soon as they had a federal government that was more willing to capitulate than hold them to their promises).

Honestly, fuck off with this revisionist history. Trudeau and Guilbeault didn't cause the world price of oil to crash in 2014. They did nothing to "shut in" Alberta's resources. Trudeau offered help to Alberta in 2015 when Harper didn't. www.readtheline.ca/p/jim-dinnin…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T02:44:22.717Z

The fact that the "remain" camp keeps telling everyone the lies about these fabricated grievances means that they are just accepting the separatists' arguments, and that just seems incredibly stupid because it's validating their false narratives. Can nobody have an honest conversation about 2014?

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T02:44:22.718Z

I cannot stress enough that if you agree with the separatists’ lies, then you have already surrendered the field to them. You are saying that they’re right about the issues, but only wrong in the solutions, which is ridiculous. The “Lead Not Leave” crew also engages in the other false narratives about Albertans, that they are somehow unique examples of people who work harder and are more ingenious than the rest of the country, which isn’t true either. Alberta, when it was carved out of the Northwest Territories, happened to be rich in resources that the First Nations signed treaties to share. Albertans are not harder workers than anyone else. Their ability to extract resources was not thanks to something special about them—they got a shit tonne of federal dollars and special tax treatment.

Speaking as an Albertan, I cannot roll my eyes hard enough every time someone insists that Albertans are a separate people because of their "work ethic" and "entrepreneurial spirit," as though it was their hard work and ingenuity that put the oil in the ground in the first place.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T02:50:18.115Z

"Oh, but it was our ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit that developed the oil sands!"No, it was a fuckload of money and tax breaks courtesy of Jean Chrétien, both when he was Pierre Trudeau's finance minister and later prime minister. Not that you'll ever hear an Albertan admit that fact.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T03:10:23.265Z

Their good fortune is virtue! Cree first identified the oil sands. Europeans needed a Treaty to exploit it. And now Alberta (a non party) want to end said treaty through individual votes-which contravenes international law, Canadian law Cree law (per Sylvestre). open.alberta.ca/dataset/d5a7…

— Orlagh O’Kelly (@orlaghokelly.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T03:57:27.341Z

Groups like “Lead not leave” and the federal Conservatives who claim to be fighting for the remain side in this referendum rely on these lies and falsehoods to make their point, which is just conceding that the separatists have a point. Until any of them can have anything approaching an honest conversation about what happened in 2014 (and 1981 for that matter), we’re just perpetuating this same cycle of manufactured grievance and this referendum will solve nothing.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-14T13:08:03.510Z

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Detroit Theatre

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In a bit of bizarre theatre, Pierre Poilievre went to Detroit yesterday to talk to business leaders about the benefits of tariff-free trade. In other words, something every rational person already knows, but that Trump refuses to believe, and along the way, others have become convinced of the benefits of tariffs, including certain Democrats and the United Auto Workers. But first, he had to hold a press conference in Windsor to give his usual talking points about how the two governments need to get a deal, even though there is no deal to be had.

Poilievre is off to Detroit to engage in some more theatre.This is solely for the benefit of his online audience.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-12T18:39:06.830Z

But perhaps more bizarre was how his trade critic, Kyle Seeback, went on Power & Politics later in the day to articulate that apparently, the Carney government just hasn’t found the proper win-win with Trump yet. No, seriously, that’s the position of the Conservatives, because clearly, this is Carney’s fault and Trump must be a rational actor. He then had to choke out a bunch of bullshit when pressed about how there could possibly be a deal when Trump can’t live up to any agreement he makes (and then spiralled as he insisted that the government taking over TMX was bad, and that nationalizing Stelco would be bad, but having the government build Pacific Link would be good, because tHaT’s DiFfErEnT!) Seeback revealed himself to be terminally unserious, as much as his whole party is terminally unserious, particularly on this file. They keep insisting that Carney needs to get a deal when there is no deal to be had, while their idea of “helping’ is magical thinking. Just risible from top to bottom.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-13T19:08:01.544Z

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No tariff relief in sight with two parties in favour

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The heads of the two main automotive lobbies were on the Hill yesterday to call for a resumption of negotiations so that tariff-free access can be returned to the auto sector, which is integrated across the border. The problem is that it’s not Canada that’s the problem here, it’s the US, and not just Trump. To wit, even Democrats are saying they would keep tariffs in place, particularly ones the UAW are calling for.

The trouble, you see, is that the U.S. now has two pro-tariff parties.

— David Reevely (@davidreevely.bsky.social) 2026-10-09T00:25:07.710Z

The UAW want to keep the section 232 tariffs in place to protect the US auto industry, Canada be damned. So much for so-so-solidarity with their Canadian brethren and sistren! I think that the auto industry in this country needs to seriously start thinking about a different future because we’re not going to get back to the old status quo. There is simply too much pressure in the US to maintain protectionism, and that ends badly for us, and the longer we keep waiting for something to change in the hopes that the old normal will return, the more our industry is going to suffer.

Disinfo cowardice

Canada has withdrawn its sponsorship of a European disinformation conference because of American pressure. Some of the panels at this conference included discussions of Americans as sources of disinformation, and so they leaned on us, and Lithuania, among others, to pull out, and Canada backed out. They made a bunch of excuses about how there were changes to the “framing” of several panels, which organizers disputed and had receipts, and the CBC even used the Wayback Machine to confirm that Global Affairs was lying to them. This is a very bad sign for the future, and where we can assert our own sovereignty, especially in the face of American pressure and yes, disinformation. Once again, Carney is showing cowardice while making a big roar.

4 What does the Carney government‘s inability to withstand pressure over a few panels at a conference tell us about its willingness to actually regulate US tech companies, or to pursue “digital sovereignty”? Does Mark Carney’s digital sovereignty include predatory and monopolistic US corporations?

— Blayne Haggart (@bhaggart.bsky.social) 2026-10-08T10:46:22.753Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-08T19:08:02.783Z

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QP: Resurrecting the economic record of Trudeau Senior

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The PM was away, having made a heat pump announcement in Sherbrooke, Quebec, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent, leaving it up to John Brassard to denounced that announcement as a conflict of interest with Brookfield. Steven MacKinnon took the opportunity to congratulate Ann Carson for her Nobel prize for literature. Brassard was snide about this, and again repeated the allegation of conflict. Nathalie Provost praised the announcement, and proclaimed how much it will save households and lower emissions. Jasraj Hallan recited talking  points about grocery prices and Thanksgiving, and François-Philippe Champagne took the opportunity to also praise the heat pump announcement while mumbling about stabilising prices. Hallan demanded that the government vote in favour of their supply day motion on there being an affordability crisis, and Champagne listed supports that they have offered Canadians. Dominique Vien also decried the cost of Thanksgiving dinner, but en français, and Provost again read the praise for the heat pump announcement. Vien also demanded support for their motion, and Provost noted how much was sent to Vien’s riding for the enhanced GST credit.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and trolled that a backbench Liberal had concerns about C-39, and wondered who else was going to wake up. MacKinnon trotted out self-congratulating talking points about becoming a clean and conventional energy superpower, and implored the Bloc to support the bill in order to speed up Churchill Falls’ approvals. Normandin noted that most Liberals ran against this kind of thing, and Champagne claimed that the Bloc used to be in favour of building in Quebec, and he again raised Churchill Falls. Gabriel Ste-Marie took over and he too worried about the “Big Beautiful Bill.” MacKinnon listed more projects that the bill would benefit.

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A walkback on MAiD after a bad faith process

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The government made an announcement yesterday that they will be permanently barring MAiD for mental illness as a sole condition, but that they will legislate to allow for advanced directives. They just don’t have that bill ready to table yet. Essentially their hand was forced by a Conservative private members’ bill that was coming up for a vote that would have also banned this category of MAiD, but there were concerns over the language used, so they didn’t want it to pass, so they had to try and get ahead of it, and lo, they have now thrown people’s Charter rights under the bus and put a lie to the notion that mental health is indistinguishable from physical health.

One of the most insulting parts of the announcement, however, was basing it on the special joint committee report, because that report was an absolute farce. The fix was in on the committee before its work even got started, particularly as the government installed an anti-MAiD Liberal as a co-chair, and they went about excluding certain witnesses who would have testified that the profession was ready to do the evaluations necessary to see if people met the criteria for eligibility. Members of the committee resigned because they knew the fix was in, while others—mostly senators—put a dissenting report that called out the problems with the main report. Suffice to say, this was entirely a bad faith exercise with a predetermined outcome in mind, because this is a conservative government in Liberal drag.

They got the decision they wanted from that committee. It was not a good-faith exercise.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-07T20:15:50.820Z

First has been shown to have been illegitimate (e.g., Co-Chairs went in opposed to MAiD and did not exercise authority as Chairs in unbiased way, didn't hear from those being excluded, one Co-Chair suggested people with mental illness can just access fentanyl) 2/3

— Jocelyn Downie (@jgdownie.bsky.social) 2026-10-07T17:48:30.655Z

Second held with no transparency or accountability. Who did they talk with? No way to know what misinformation they were provided and relied upon. Deeply flawed processes = deeply flawed decisions. 3/3

— Jocelyn Downie (@jgdownie.bsky.social) 2026-10-07T17:48:30.656Z

Meanwhile, there have been so many torqued, misleading or outright false articles being published about how Canada is “euthanizing” all kinds of seniors or people with illnesses, part of an ongoing campaign to discredit MAiD in Canada and to prevent its adoption in the UK (legislation was recently voted down narrowly), and there are no stories too horrible that they won’t concoct in order to paint a completely false picture of the state of the law here, while Conservative MPs are all over social media screaming “Why is nobody writing about this?” when the false stories would be describing murder, which is not what happened. But as with so many things, this government is completely uninterested in combatting this disinformation, and will just let it fester because they’re too chickenshit to defend Charter rights when it’s difficult.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-07T13:08:03.106Z

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QP: Diesel for Thanksgiving

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The PM was present for a second time this week, and on a Wednesday no less, which might actually be a first for this prime minister. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, but for many families it won’t be happy for many families because the costs of a Thanksgiving dinner has gone up by ten percent, per Dalhousie University, and he wondered when Canadians would be able to have an “affordable Thanksgiving dinner.” Mark Carney echoed the well-wishes for Thanksgiving, and also made note of the previous members’ statement about the anniversary of October 7th, and closed by insisting that they have made life more affordable for families. Poilievre says the prime minister is disconnected from reality, not only with the cost of food but also housing, and cited a Habitat for Humanity study about Canadians being twice as likely as the average in 22 countries about giving up on the dream of buying a house. Carney pointed out that 12 million families received the enhanced GST benefit cheques, and that they are building affordable housing. Poilievre switched to English to again wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, and repeated the same Dalhousie statistic. Carney repeated the well-wishes and that 12 million received the benefit, and that 22 million had their taxes cut, in addition to other government programmes. Poilievre insisted that Carney is out of touch  and “you are out of money,” sounding like he was directing that to the Speaker, before he repeated the Habitat for Humanity statistic. Carney tried to insist that he “just got here,” and after the uproar, corrected to say he’s only been here eighteen months compared to Poilievre’s 240 months, and patted himself on the back for announcements made. Poilievre derided this and insisted the government has done nothing, and Carney touted rent reductions and share of income spent on housing falling every single month. Poilievre insisted that nothing is actually getting built, to which Carney made another joke about just having got here, before he touted some economic good news statistics.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he decried that the only priority of the government is the west coast pipeline as a sop to Alberta separatists, which might only fire up Quebec sovereigntists. Carney patted himself on the back for the Churchill Falls agreement, and insisted the pipeline was for Canada’s sovereignty and independence. Blanchet needled that the biggest project in Quebec is actually Newfoundland, and that the beneficiaries of the pipeline are American owners. Carney started that Churchill Falls contains $200 billion in investments for Quebec. Blanchet then pointed out that the government is starving the arts and not helping forestry or aluminium, but they have all kinds of money for this pipeline. Carney again insisted that they are investing in Quebec, and listed some additional projects including high speed rail.

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The thing about diesel prices…

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As you may have gathered, the Conservatives are demanding the government adopt their “emergency diesel price relief” Supply Day motion, whose key features are to extend the excise fuel tax relief until Canada Day next year (beyond where the Liberals are proposing to under C-38), and to kill the industrial carbon price (which has precious little bearing on the price of diesel), and ending the Clean Fuel Standard (which again, has nothing to do with the price, and the government points out is creating a market for biodiesel using canola from Canadian farms, with a production facility in Poilievre’s own riding). It’s pure theatre and is, by sheer coincidence, the same demands Poilievre makes for everything.

But it’s all so stupid. They should have an inkling of the diesel market in this country, and clearly, they have no idea. They’re more interested in rage-bait and fear-mongering than they are in facts, because of course they are. So here’s Andrew Leach with a few correctives:

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2103509626641915953

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2103514404348465165

Andrew Scheer is also not helping himself by making big pronouncements about the energy market that are decidedly false. Because Andrew Scheer.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2106776520077533326

Conservatives demanding the National Energy Programme 2.0 will never not be absolutely hilarious.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-06T13:08:04.325Z

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QP: People can’t eat press releases

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The PM was absent, even though he was in the building, while Pierre Poilievre also stayed away. That left it up to Luc Berthold led off in French, and he retreaded yesterday’s talking points about the government’s increase in American procurement dollars instead of investing in Canada. Joël Lightbound was theatrically outraged that Berthold was so dismissive about the plans for building new icebreakers, or VIA Rail trains. Berthold said that the government was all talk with no results, and accused the prime minister of sending more money to the US because that’s where the bulk of his investments were located. Lightbound said that those investments mean 17,000 jobs in one riding, and 5300 jobs in another. Kyle Seeback took over in English, and he also decried the fact that there was an increase in procurement dollars going to the U.S. Lightbound shrugged this off as beneficiaries include some in his colleague’s riding. Seeback insisted that these dollars were just illusions, and Lightbound turn insisted that there was a decision to increase Canadian content, which included the LAVs in his colleague’s riding. Andrew Lawton took over to ask the same question, but louder and smarmier, and this time Tim Hodgson listed Jon’s from major investments, and said that the Conservatives can’t tell the difference between someone investing in Canada and someone who is crapping on Canada, which the Speaker cautioned him about. Lawton tried again, louder and with even more egregious smarm, and this time Stephen Fuhr patted himself on the back for the procurements they have announced.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and decried the ability of the government to simply override environmental standards using their Henry VIII powers. Stephen MacKinnon said that going faster doesn’t mean fewer standards (erm, really?). Normandin suggested that Carney was trying to govern by decree, and Dominic LeBlanc shrugged this off as Normandin trying to get a clip for TVA. Mario Simard took over to ask the same question, and Julie Dabrusin patted herself on the back for their clean electricity plans such as Churchill Falls.

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A PQ win with a minority legislature

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It looks like the Parti Québécois have won government with a minority legislature, which is at least better than their winning a majority and using that to do a bunch of very bad things over the next few years. The governing CAQ were wiped off the map, while both the Quebec Liberals did better than anticipated, and the Quebec Conservatives have made gains, as did Quebec Solidaire. It was a change election, but unfortunately the options for change were not great.

Unfortunately, while you’re going to have a lot of profiles in the next few days about the rise of PSPP and the return of the PQ after they were nearly wiped out in the last election, much of the dialogue save a few outlets are going to be pretty mute about the fact that what underpinned the PQ campaign was outright racism, and that the foundations for this were laid by the CAQ running an ethnic nationalist regime for two successive legislatures while nobody could be bothered to call it out. And now PSPP is going to try and do stupid, unconstitutional things like try to “abolish the monarchy” in the province, and I’m sure there will be a wholly inadequate response to that as well.

Meanwhile, because a bunch of people are going to focus on the popular vote figures from this election result, we’re going to see the electoral reform nerds rise up again, and it’s going to be incredibly tiresome. A reminder: The popular vote is not a real thing. It’s a logical fallacy, because this is not one election, it’s 127 separate but simultaneous elections, and just aggregating the results in spite of the fact that you had different numbers of parties and people on the ballots in each riding means you’re making false comparisons across the board. We elect individuals, not parties, in spite of what people think, and that matters. But everyone is going to distort how the system works over the next few weeks amidst all of the hand-wringing, so I fully expect this to work my last nerve.

I am going to have to spend the next number of weeks reminding everyone that the popular vote is not a real number. It's a logical fallacy because this was not one election, it was 127 separate elections that happened at the same time. Adding them up is not a meaningful number.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-06T03:58:39.965Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-05T19:08:01.723Z

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QP: Plaintive wails about Canadian steel

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The prime minister was present today, unusually for a Monday, as was Pierre Poilievre across from him. Poilievre led off in French, noted the prime minister’s stated goal of buying more Canadian, but an analysis from the Toronto Star shows that both dollar amounts and share of procurement were up when it comes to American procurements. Mark Carney toute that they have a buy Canadian policy, and listed off several of the big ticket items. Poilievre repeated the same question in English, and got the same response with the added point about the pipeline announcement last week. Poilievre repeated the same question and said that there were nothing but promises with no results, and Carney listed projects where shovels were in the ground. Poilievre sniped back that he was taking credit for projects approved before he was in office, and noted that the steel for LNG-2 was coming from China and not Hamilton. Carney praised the announcement, and said there would be 15,000 tonnes of Canadian steel in the “broader ecosystem” of the project. Poilievre then blamed Carney for the Stelco owner’s decisions, and demanded more projects with Canadian steel. Carney said that there was such a project—Pacific Link—while they were going after the owners to the full force of the law for not living up to their promises. Poilievre gave another paean about Canadian steel, and Carney repeated his same points about LNG-2 and invited Poilievre to support Bill C-39.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she lambasted the government for subsidising Pacific Link with no environmental assessment, and that the private sector has no interest in. Carney insisted that the pipeline was in the national interest because it would make Canada more independent, prosperous, and “inclusive.” Normandin accused Carney of putting his personal interests above the law, and Carney patted himself on the back for Churchill Falls. Xavier Barsalou-Duval took his own shot at the diminution of environmental standards and making the Henry VIII powers permanent. Carney responded with some bafflegab about building.

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