Roundup: Trades and red tape

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Day fourteen, and the leaders continued to fan out across the country to sell their messages in the shadow of the Americans facing an economic collapse thanks to their tariffs. Mark Carney was in Oakville, talking about skilled trades—providing training grants of up to $8000 for skilled trades, plus working with provinces to establish more spaces in trades colleges, and expanding labour mobility tax deductions. Carney also talked about the tough days we are facing ahead, thanks to Trump, and notes that he has been there before with post-Brexit Britain.

Pierre Poilievre was in Oosyoos, BC, to promise a reduction of “25 percent of red tape” within two years, which is a weirdly specific number, that doesn’t say much about what kind of regulatory burden is being lifted (but it certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to be cleaning up the tax code, which is one of the biggest drags on business). Poilievre will be in New Westminster, BC, today.

Jagmeet Singh was in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, and promised that everyone would have a family doctor by 2030, which is a) a provincial responsibility, and b) promising provinces a 1 percent top-up on transfer payments to make it happen is incredibly naïve. Today, Singh will be in Halifax and Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, and end the day in Montreal to appear on Tout le monde en parle.

In other campaign news, here’s a look at how the Conservatives are giving Poilievre’s wife a prominent role in order to try and get him to appeal to more women voters. Here is a contrast of how the Liberals and Conservatives are handling the media on their campaigns.

Ukraine Dispatch

At least three people were injured in an overnight missile attack on Kyiv. As well, three others were injured in an attack on Mykolaiv. President Zelenskyy met with British and French military leaders to talk about a potential multinational peacekeeping force deployed to Ukraine if a ceasefire happens.

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Roundup: Another plan to save the CBC

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Day thirteen, and the campaigns were trying to get back to a message that wasn’t trade war-related, for what that’s worth in the current moment we’re in. Mark Carney was in Montreal, where he promised to protect CBC/Radio-Canada though a more accountable governance structure and more funding directed to local coverage, and to protect it by enshrining its funding in legislation…except that you can’t bind future governments by statute, and yes, the Supreme Court of Canada has said so. He also downplayed Preston Manning’s crybaby separatism comments, and reminded reporters of his western credentials. Carney will be in Oakville and Toronto today.

Pierre Poilievre was in Trois-Rivières, Quebec, to propose tougher bail conditions and sentencing for intimate partner violence (which is something to tackle! But sentencing is not the only solution). The Conservatives didn’t send out a notice as to where Poilievre would be today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Montreal to pronounce that they would crack down harder on offshore tax evasion, with some digs about Brookfield as though Carney was making all of its decisions (because apparently the NDP need to learn how corporate boards operate). They also promised they would tear up tax treaties with havens like Bermuda…except those treaties are vital for information sharing used to combat tax evasion. Because apparently the NDP really thought through that policy. Singh will be in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador this morning, and then off to Halifax for the evening.

In other campaign news, here is what we heard from the Radio-Canada “Five leaders” interviews, and how Poilievre is starting to moderate a few of his positions including on things like the digital services tax.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on a residential area of Kryvyi Rih killed nineteen people including nine children, and yet they claimed they were targeting “gathering military,” which is obvious disinformation. Germany is funding Eutelsat to provide Ukraine an alternative to Starlink, with the hopes of sending between 5,000 and 10,000 terminals within weeks.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1908205945790107887

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Roundup: Retaliatory tariffs on American non-compliant cars

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Day twelve, meaning we’re about a third of the way through, and so much of the day was all about the fallout of Wednesday’s tariff announcement. Mark Carney was in Ottawa where he had yet another virtual meeting with the premiers before meeting with the media. There, he said that the era of trade where America leads is over is over, that Trump’s actions will rupture the global economy as it has been since the end of World War II, and that while this is a tragedy, it’s the new reality. Canada’s response is a matching 25 percent tariff on vehicles from non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles coming from the United States, but not on auto parts, where the proceeds would go back to the auto workers. Carney will start the day in Montreal, before heading to Woodbridge, Ontario, and then Scarborough.

Pierre Poilievre was in Kingston, where he promised to remove the GST on Canadian-made vehicles (which the NDP initially proposed), and a fund to help keep workers stay on the job in affected industries. It is also noteworthy that Poilievre distanced himself from Danielle Smith and Preston Manning’s crybaby separatism comments, saying that they need to unite the country. Poilievre will be Trois-Rivières, Quebec, today.

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Jagmeet Singh was in Ottawa to propose the creation of Victory Bonds to fund public infrastructure, in addition to reannouncing his previous protectionist plans. Singh will be in Montreal again today.

In other campaign news, Carney said that legislation to protect Supply Management was unnecessary (which is true, but also because you can’t bind a future government so you’re just wasting everyone’s time). Poilievre insisted that their willingness to dump candidates (so far) shows that they’re different from the Liberals (which is a specious argument before the cut-off date).

Ukraine Dispatch

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are allegedly holed up in a monastery as Russian troops try to drive them from Kursk region. President Zelenskyy visited the neighbouring Sumy region yesterday. Ukraine appears to have resolved some of its manpower challenges.

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Roundup: A faux keynote to sanewash Trump

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Day eleven, and the countdown was on for the major tariff announcement from Trump, which he dubbed “Liberation Day” in the most Orwellian sense. Mark Carney was in Ottawa, meeting with his Canada-US advisory council before the announcement, and then the Canada-US Cabinet committee after the announcement, but with more tariffs coming into play later today, the announcement on retaliatory measures is still forthcoming. Carney did say that this latest global tariff imposition will “fundamentally change the global trading system.” And while he didn’t campaign, Carney did, however, have François-Philippe Champagne make a campaign announcement on his behalf in Granby, Quebec, about the agrifood sector, which not only vows to protect Supply Management, but makes pledges around more funding for various agricultural programmes including trying to build more domestic processing capacity. Carney will remain in Ottawa for the morning, and head to Montreal for a Radio-Canada event.

Pierre Poilievre was in Toronto to give a “keynote speech” to an invited audience meant to resemble a Chamber of Commerce speech on the response to Trump, and it was…middling, because he seems to think that Trump is actually interested in renegotiating the New NAFTA, or that the tariffs are for legitimate reasons rather than the ludicrous belief that they can be used as income to replace taxes that billionaires pay. And he made some particularly odd promises, like using the tax windfall from increased trade to fund the military, or that the Americans actually care about stopping their guns from crossing our border. And a lot of it was falling back on his same economically illiterate beliefs that the Liberals killed the resource extraction sector (which is only operating at record production levels) and that more oil and gas will solve all of our problems (it most assuredly won’t). Poilievre will remain in Kinsgston this morning, and then head to Oshawa for a rally in the evening, and will attend the Radio-Canada event virtually.

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg and made his own pledges to protect workers from the tariffs, which were mostly just reannouncements. Aside from the pledge to meaningfully reform EI (which is far easier said than done—the current government has been working on this for years), he pledged investments in a few sectors, reannounced things like his GST cuts (which disproportionately benefit the wealthy), and he pledged more protectionist measures, which feels like it’s missing the mark for the moment we’re in as a country. Singh will be in Ottawa for the morning, and then head to Montreal later in the day for the Radio-Canada event.

In other campaign news, Conservative spending on Facebook and Instagram ads has fallen sharply while the Liberals have increased theirs.

As for the tariffs, it looks like Canada and Mexico were exempted from this particular round, and that the New NAFTA-compliant exemption remains in place, but the steel and aluminium tariffs are still there, and the auto tariffs come on today in some fashion but they are making those up as they go along, so those remain significant issues overall. But as for how they arrived at their apparently random list of tariffs today, well, it’s even dumber than you could have imagined.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3llustvcjuc2q

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack hit an energy substation in Sumy region, as Russia claims that Ukrainian forces’ drone and shelling attacks in Kursk region cut off power to 1500 households, thus claiming each side violated the “energy ceasefire.”

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Roundup: Promising to capitulate to the oil companies

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Day ten, and things felt a bit more on track today now that the Paul Chiang situation didn’t loom over everything. Mark Carney was in Winnipeg, and re-announced his party’s affordability measures, such as the cancellation of the consumer carbon levy (though I’m not sure how losing the rebates after this quarter will help most households with affordability), his tax cut plan (which disproportionately helps the wealthy), and their various home building pledges along with the previously announced expansion of dental care this summer. That said, he also said expanding pharmacare likely wasn’t going to be a priority (but remember that pharmacare done in the dumbest way possible because the NDP insisted, so maybe it’ll give it time to negotiate a better system? But only if the premiers actually want to play ball, mind you, and they were reluctant beforehand. Carney is back in Ottawa today for “meetings” in advance of the tariff announcement this afternoon.

Pierre Poilievre was in Petty Harbour, Newfoundland and Labrador, and announced that he was going to cave to five demands from the oil industry, including repealing the Impact Assessment Act, scrap the emissions cap, the industrial carbon price, guarantee “six-month approvals” for projects (and good luck with that), and increase Indigenous loan guarantees for resource projects. Of course, the justifications he keeps pointing to are things that predated Trudeau and the IAA, and there are a tonne of approved projects on the books that aren’t moving ahead for market-based reasons. He’s selling a fiction about the need for more oil and gas projects which the market has not moved on, and is convinced this is the way to fight Trump. It’s baffling. Poilievre also insisted that the Liberals were going to bring the consumer carbon levy back once the election is over, just like Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole also insisted that the Liberals were going to tax the capital gains on your home. He later made an announcement in PEI about removing the automatic escalator on beer, wine and spirits, which…is a fraction of a cent every year. Honest to Dionysus… Poilievre will be in Toronto this morning, and heads to Kingston for the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton, and promised changes to the Canada Health Act to ensure that American corporations can’t buy Canadian healthcare facilities, and to put stronger controls on provinces who allow cash-for-access services. He later headed to Winnipeg and met with Wab Kinew. Singh remains in Winnipeg today.

In other campaign news, the Greens have qualified to be in the leaders’ debates, but Maxime Bernier and his vanity party have not (as it should be). Here is a comparison of the various carbon pricing (or not) policies as we now appear to be in a race to the bottom based on false premises. Here is an analysis of the various housing promises. And stories of frustration continue to leak out from the Conservative ranks.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians claim to have captured a new village in eastern Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy is meeting with a small number of countries about contributing troops as part of the security guarantee in the event the conflict does end.

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Roundup: Chiang overshadows the day

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Day nine, and in spite of the big plans that some of the leaders were trying to put forward, the issue of Paul Chiang loomed over everything. Mark Carney was in Vaughan, Ontario, and pitched a very bold plan to stand up a new Build Canada Homes organization, which would see the federal government take charge of building houses, with a goal of reaching 500,000 new homes per year, and using the market power to stand up a pre-fabrication industry that would have the certainty that these orders are coming in. (They also had to quietly change the French name of the proposed organisation after the initial version was grammatically incorrect). He also promised a number of things around development charges and permitting that are not within federal jurisdiction, so questions remain as to how he expects to reach those goals. Carney will be in Winnipeg today.

Pierre Poilievre was in Fredericton, New Brunswick, pitching a national energy corridor, without saying how he plans to actually achieve it over the provinces and First Nations. (Yes, Carney talked about this with the premiers, but there have been no details yet). When asked about the mounting frustration within the campaign, Poilievre avoided answering the question, but defended his platform under the rubric that the Liberals weakened the country. Poilievre will be in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador this morning, and hold a rally in Borden-Carleton, PEI, in the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Victoria, and promoted energy retrofits that would create “good union jobs,” which continues to feel hopelessly behind the curve. We also saw Singh’s messaging strategy start to shift as well, insisting that electing more NDP MPs mean more people fighting for the “little guy” in negotiations around the future of the country and yeah, I’m not sure that’s not quite how it works. Singh remains in Edmonton today.

In other campaign news, here’s a comparison of how the party leaders are each dealing with the Trump threats, and how that is reflected in their policies. On the Paul Chiang question, Carney said that he spoke with Chiang and that he still has his confidence, which raises big questions about Carney’s political judgment. Chiang posted that he had resigned as candidate around midnight, which takes the issue off the table, but leaves the questions around Carney’s judgment hanging in the air.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy says that Russia has committed over 183,000 war crimes in Ukraine since the start of their invasion, and that they need to be punished for it.

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Roundup: Reviving an abandoned capital gains plan

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Day eight of the campaign, and in spite of there being policy announcement, it was another fairly low-key day, or maybe it just felt like that without the usual wall-to-wall coverage. Mark Carney continued to hold private events in his riding, and took to media questions. There was no announcement of where Carney will be today.

Pierre Poilievre was in the GTA, and announced a plan to waive capital gains taxes if they are re-invested in Canadian companies. If this sounds familiar, it was because the Conservatives floated this in 2006, only to abandon it because it was impractical. Poilievre insists that this could be “economic rocket fuel,” but there is no lack of irony with the fact that it comes with an absolute mountain of red tape in the form of compliance paperwork. Poilievre heads to Fredericton, New Brunswick, later today.

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Jagmeet Singh was in Port Moody, BC, and promised to have CMHC offer low-cost loans to first-time home buyers, yet another demand-side solution to a supply-side problem. Singh is campaigning in Victoria today, before heading to Edmonton.

Meanwhile, the Paul Chiang controversy continues to simmer as the Liberals refuse to turf him, in spite of the fact that there can be no justification for the kind of behaviour he exhibited in instructing people to turn over his would-be Conservative rival to Chinese authorities for a bounty. (That would-be rival is now the Conservative candidate in nearby Don Valley North). That Chiang himself has not resigned is as much of a problem. The cut-off for nominations has not been reached yet, and they could still find a replacement in time (though not much time) rather than continue to let this complete lapse in political judgment continue to haunt them throughout the campaign. Carney is not Teflon, and the Liberals shouldn’t treat him as such.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Kharkiv for a second night in a row, injuring two and damaging a kindergarten and private houses.

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Roundup: Meeting the local volunteers

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Day seven of the campaign, and it was a quieter day, but things were still happening. It also looks like, despite previous campaigns usually having quieter Sundays for the parties to regroup, to let reporters swap in and out of campaign planes and so on, that some of the parties are having active campaign days today, because why let anyone catch up?

Mark Carney was in his riding, meeting his team and volunteers, and had along the way kicked out local media. Oops. He’ll remain in Ottawa today, meeting with local families and volunteers.

Pierre Poilievre was in Winnipeg, where he pledged to allow tradespeople to write off their expenses when they travel for work, because he’s trying very hard to secure the blue-collar vote, and to pretend that the solution to the trade war with Trump is to just expand the oil and gas sector. Poilievre also said he wouldn’t contest any controversial Quebec language law in courts, and presumably that means their “secularism” legislation either (because apparently he’s still trying to out-Bloc the Bloc). Poilievre’s campaign returns to the GTA today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Ottawa, and promised “emergency price caps” on certain grocery items in order to “tariff proof” them, which seems like it’s asking to defeat the purpose of counter-tariffs because Singh and his advisors don’t have a clue about how these things work, and refuse to listen to economists. He also wants a windfall tax on grocery giants and more powers to the Competition Bureau to enforce grocery prices—almost all of which are old policies just dressed up for the trade war era rather than the spike in inflation, meaning that the NDP has a box of “solutions” that they are seeking out problems for. The campaign heads off to Port Moody, BC, today.

Meanwhile, the knives are out in the Conservative camp, with even more leaks and anonymous sources™ calling up more media outlets to discuss their concerns with the state of the campaign (CBC and Globe and Mail this time), painting even more of a picture of a campaign that is too centralised, too focused on weird, niche issues (including reporting of crowd sizes), bullying, and tone-deafness. This also includes the fact that some 90 ridings were set aside to have Poilievre and Jenni Byrne choose the candidates rather than allowing a nomination process, which is frankly happening across too many parties these days.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck a military hospital, shopping centre, and apartment blocks in Kharkiv late Saturday.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1905866120684319066

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Roundup: Carney’s first call with Trump

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Day six of the campaign, and things took a slightly different tone as the tariff issue still loomed large. Mark Carney remained in Montreal, where he had his first call with Donald Trump since becoming prime minister, and they both gave very civil readouts, but the tariffs are still coming, as are the retaliatory measures. Carney then had a virtual meeting with the premiers, before holding his announcement for the day, which was about a $5 billion fund for trade corridors and infrastructure, dedicated in particular to east-west trade and ports to different destinations than the US. Today, Carney will be back in Ottawa to meet his campaign volunteers in Nepean (but no word on any actual door-knocking).

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Pierre Poilievre was in Nanaimo, BC, to essentially re-announce his previously revealed, completely unconstitutional promise of locking up fentanyl traffickers for life. This is just going to capture low-level users whose lives are already miserable, but sometimes the cruelty is the point. When asked about the latest tariffs, Poilievre continues to hope for a change in tone out of Trump (and is not facing the reality of a dead relationship), but then went into a rant about how only the oil industry can make us economically viable. Poilievre will be in Winnipeg today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto to announce a policy about banning corporate landlords from buying affordable units and jacking the rents, and tried to tie it to Carney and Brookfield. Of course, Singh’s plan is mostly unworkable because much of it lies within provincial jurisdiction, so that’s not unexpected. He’ll be in Ottawa today, canvassing with local candidates.

In the wake of Kory Teneycke’s pillorying of Poilievre’s campaign, other Conservatives on the campaign are coming out the woodwork to talk about how the campaign is shambolic, the leader isolated, and that the wheels have already come off of it. In other campaign news, the National Post dug up Mark Carney’s PhD thesis and got an academic that they run op-eds for—and who donates to the Conservatives—to declare that aspects were “plagiarised.” They weren’t really, and the only real plagiarism here is the lifting wholesale of far-right US tactics (see: Claudine Gay at Harvard), but hoo boy, the stench of desperation coming off the Conservatives as every one of their candidates screamed over social media about this non-scandal. In a similar example of the media pushing a non-story comes word that one of the funds Poilievre invested in holds Brookfield stocks, after all of his grief about them (but again, they’re funds, he doesn’t direct them Meanwhile, Breach Media found evidence that Poilievre’s wife helped her uncle stay in the country after he was deemed inadmissible and was ordered to be deported, and contrasts it to Poilievre’s rhetoric about “illegal border crossers” needing to be deported.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3llhfo4w3vc26

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack on Dnipro killed four late Friday, and drone attacks on Poltava damaged warehouses owned by the state gas producer, in spite of the “energy ceasefire.” Russia claims Ukraine destroyed a gas infrastructure unit in Sudzha, but Ukraine said Russia did it. Now that Ukrainians are out of Kursk region, they have started fresh incursions into the Belgorod region. Ukrainian intelligence, corroborated by two G7 allies, suggests that Putin is planning a fresh offensive on three regions in order to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position with the US.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1905766350825607175

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Roundup: The relationship with the US has ended

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Day five of the election campaign, and two of the three leaders changed their plans in response to Trump’s tariff announcement—the Conservatives did not, and they can’t pivot because they don’t have media on their plane who can follow them if they have to change plans to respond to events, which is all the more reason why they never should have left them off.

Mark Carney returned to Ottawa to meet with his Canada-US Cabinet committee, and call several premiers including Doug Ford, before addressing the media. There were no campaign announcements today, and said that retaliatory measures will be announced next week when more tariffs are supposed to be coming from Trump, but his remarks were stark, and have been blowing up across a segment of American media—that the relationship we used to have of deepening economic integration and cooperation on security and defence is now over. That’s going to mean a significant retooling of our economy for “strategic economic autonomy,” and that this will be difficult, with no silver bullet. That also means shifting the auto sector for more global trade, which is apparently part of what he discussed with union leaders yesterday, so we’ll see if we get more details about what that could mean. Carney did say that Trump’s office has reached out to talk, so that will likely happen in a couple of days. Afterward, he headed to Montreal for a rally, and today, he plans to have an emergency virtual meeting with the first ministers.

Pierre Poilievre was in Surrey, BC, and his daily announcement was about raising the TFSA limit so long as it was tied to Canadian funds—but he made it sound like government would top-up funds (they won’t), it really only benefits those who can add another $5000 to these accounts, and more to the point, it adds a bunch of bureaucratic reporting mechanisms to prove the funds are Canadian. (Sounds like someone is adding red tape!) He did have a message to Trump to “knock it off,” which was weak and too late, but he keeps talking in terms that the relationship can simply go back to what it was if the tariffs get called off, when it can’t. Democracy has died in the US. There is no ability to trust this administration, and probably the next one. He is off to Nanaimo, BC, today.

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Jagmeet Singh, having pivoted his campaign stop, went to Windsor to announce his plan for entirely Canadian-made cars, and that he’d waive the GST on Canadian-made autos. The promise is likely impossible because supply chains were integrated for a reason, and we have too small of a market to support a purely domestic auto market (and cue all the jokes about Canadian Ladas). He is headed back to Toronto today.

In other election news, former Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke ripped Poilievre a new asshole at an Empire Club event on Wednesday about Poilievre’s inability to meet the moment in the campaign, which was why his poll numbers are tanking, and why he is heading for defeat—particularly because Poilievre has adopted way too many Trump habits to appeal to a certain segment of voters he wants to keep on-side. This as Doug Ford’s personal pollster has made it known that Poilievre’s numbers are grim in Ontario.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 86 drones plus a missile overnight Wednesday, which sparked fires and injured 21 people in Kharkiv, while shelling in Kherson killed two and damaged power supplies, in contravention of the supposed partial “ceasefire.” Russian forces have also been stepping up attacks on Sumy region. Putin wants a “temporary administration” to allow for elections in Ukraine to end the war, when all that needs to happen for him to end it is to simply send his soldiers home.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1905252833827364873

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