QP: Swagger around the Trump election

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In the wake of the U.S. election results, the prime minister was present today to answer all questions, while his deputy was away. All of the other leaders were present, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and claimed that Trudeau had previously caved to Trump on softwood lumber and claimed he would do so again. Justin Trudeau dismissed this and noted how they successfully renegotiated NAFTA, and stood up to other tariffs. Poilievre’s tried this again in English, and Trudeau repeated his same points with the added note that Poilievre wouldn’t get his security clearance. Poilievre went on about what is “dumb” and claimed the carbon levy was driving jobs and investment in the U.S., and Trudeau said that they were going to grow the economy together, and said that that government takes defence and security seriously, and pointed to the defence cuts under the Conservatives and his refusal to get His clearance. Poilievre patted himself on the back for the Conservatives “crushing the Taliban and ISIS,” claimed Trudeau couldn’t shoot down a Chinese weather balloon. Trudeau accused Poilievre of talking down the Canadian Forces, and called him out for not committing to their two percent NATO timeline. Poilievre returned to French to claim that Trudeau has destroyed the economy, and Trudeau listed ways in which they have stood up for Canadian workers and took defence seriously, before one more swipe at the security clearance. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about the crush of Americans heading for the border to avoid Trump. Trudeau noted that they have been making preparations before some economic back-patting. Blanchet felt that was too vague, and Trudeau again offered some bland assurances that they are protecting the border, and the steps taken to better distribute refugees around the country.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and worried about the American tariffs would raise prices in Canada. (Huh? How?) Trudeau listed the workers they stood up for workers the last time and will do so again. Singh said was “cold comfort” before repeating the question in French, and Trudeau, related his same back-patting.

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Roundup: Making more dishonest hay out of the New York condo

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The House of Commons’ Government Operations Committee heard from Mélanie Joly yesterday about the purchase of the new residence for the Consul General in New York, where Joly spoke about the importance to have a presence in New York, and that all of the rules were followed. (Both are true). The Conservatives, however, think they found some kind of smoking gun when Politico obtained documents through Access to Information that they claim “proves” that Tom Clark, said Consul General, had a role in the decision when he previously testified that he hadn’t. Except the documents don’t really say what they claim. There, the documents show that Clark pointed out that the residence is not wheelchair accessible, and that the relationship with the condo board has been deteriorating because of rules around when and what kinds of events can be hosted, which is one of the main reasons this residence exists.

They are trying to get Clark back to committee to grill him again, but that doesn’t change the fact that even if he pointed out that the current residence isn’t suited, he didn’t have any hand in the decision making that led to the new property. There is no contradiction to his testimony, but they have been content to lie about it all day, in press releases and in the House of Commons, because they can. In the political right, brazen lying has become a power play because they know they can get away with it because they won’t be called on it (the most media will do is both-sides them), and in creating these alternate universes from those lies, it becomes an in-group identification for their followers. We are in a very dangerous place with our democracy, and nobody wants to call this out.

Speaking of committees, far-right commentator Lauren Chen of Tenet Media, which is alleged to have taken Russian money, was summoned to appear at the public safety committee, where she attended, but refused to answer questions. This led to a unanimous motion to refer the matter to the Speaker, who will no doubt rule that this is yet another prima facie case of privilege being breached, but the Conservatives will have to end their current filibuster before they can move onto this particular issue.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s military shot down 48 drones and two missiles overnight Monday, while a missile attack on Zaporizhzhia killed six and injured at least twenty more on Tuesday. Ukrainian troops say that they have engaged with North Korean units in their occupied portions of the Kursk region of Russia, for the first time.

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QP: Blaming Trudeau for sectarian violence

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While the election was happening south of the border, the prime minister was present for Question Period, as were all of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and led off with a bit of an exaggeration about the softwood lumber agreement that Harper signed with the U.S. (which the industry objected to), as his way of demanding an election. Justin Trudeau noted that the Conservatives advocated capitulating to the Americans in previous trade disputes while his government stood up to Trump and won. Poilievre then made the false claim that the government is “impoverishing” Canadians, to which Trudeau dismissed this as more of Poilievre’s false “broken” narrative. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question and its false assertions about softwood lumber. Trudeau noted that he has already answered this in French, and took the opportunity to denounce the violence seen at Sikh and Hindu temples. Poilievre ignored that entirely and repeated his false narratives around the GDP per capita, and Trudeau noted Poilievre’s silence on the violence in the South Asian community, and used that to wedge in his condemnation that Poilievre wouldn’t get his security clearance. Poilievre said this was a distraction from the economy and blamed Trudeau personally for the sectarian violence, rise in hate crimes and division in the country. Trudeau said that while Poilievre is so assured that he knows the causes of these problems, he won’t get his clearance to get proper briefings.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and wondered why the emissions cap was being done by regulation and not statute, but Trudeau didn’t explain the difference, but went on a soliloquy about the oil and gas sector doing their fair share. Blanchet demanded tougher standards to take to the electorate, and Trudeau stated that no sector should be allowed to pollute without limit, and that they should re-invest their record profits into lowering their emissions.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and complained that a Loblaws-owned company is charging for families doctors. Trudeau noted that this is provincial responsibility, but their latest transfers included earmarks for hiring doctors and mental health services. Singh gave a scripted retort before repeating the question in French and got the same answer in French.

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Roundup: Emissions cap unveiled

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At long last, the federal government unveiled their long-awaited oil and gas emissions cap draft regulations, mandating that they reduce emissions by 35 percent by 2032, with the expectation that much of these reductions are going to come in the form of reducing methane emissions—much of which is already underway—and that production is still expected to rise by 16 percent over those eight years. (Five things to know about the proposal here). For an industry that insists that it’s going to be “Net Zero” by 2050, this would seem like an achievable milestone to get there along the way, but apparently not.

Danielle Smith had a meltdown and started threatening legal action, but can’t exactly articulate on what basis that would be. Certain newspaper columnists posited that she could somehow invoke the Notwithstanding Clause, which doesn’t apply to this sort of situation in any way, shape or form (and should be disqualifying for someone writing in a newspaper with a six-figure salary).

Industry insists this is going to kill them, but they’ve been promising reductions for decades and have taken plenty of government money to help them fulfil those promises that they are now insisting are impossible. So…at what point do we start calling them on their own bullshit? If their plan is to hope that there will be magical technology by 2050 that will painlessly reduce their emission for them, well, that’s their problem. They made these promises, and it’s time they show how they’re going to live up to them.

Ukraine Dispatch

There was another Russian air attack made against Kyiv overnight, but it’s too early to tell how much damage was caused. South Korea’s defence ministry now estimates more than 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, but the Pentagon cannot confirm if they are currently fighting in the Kursk region.

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QP: Low-energy economic bafflegab

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On a rainy Monday, the prime minister was in town but not at QP, while his deputy was in his stead. Some of the other leaders were present today, but not Pierre Poilievre, unusually. That left Andrew Scheer to lead off to read some utter nonsense about “economic vandalism” and a “per capita” recession, and demanded a cancellation of “tax hikes.” Patty Hajdu got up to first speak to the passing of Senator Murray Sinclair. Scheer said they joined in sending condolences, before returning to his claims of economic vandalism and railed about the proposed emissions cap, and demanded it be scrapped. Jonathan Wilkinson said that they are moving to address climate change, and that low-carbon sources will be more valuable. Scheer read some statistics without context to claim the government was creating jobs in the U.S., to which Steven Guilbeault responded that Scheer should actually read the regulations, and not that production was still projected to increase. Luc Berthold took over in French to read the same non-sequitur economic stats, and Chrystia Freeland shot back with countering statistics about how much better the situation in Canada was compared to the U.S. Berthold insisted that the wealth gap is growing between countries, and Freeland quoted an American economist who suggested companies leave New York for Toronto.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he railed that the Senate needed to pass the Supply Management bill, lest there be economic doom. Lawrence MacAulay reminded him that he as been a farmer under the system his entier career, and that the government supports it. Therrien railed further about the Senators holding up the bill, two which Marie-Claude Bibeau reminded him that Senator are independent and that only a Liberal government would protect it.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP to point to doctors in Quebec offering private options, and demanded the government do something. Mark Holland recited the paean about public healthcare and suggested that they work together to pressure provinces. Singh repeated the same in French, and got much the same paean en français.

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Roundup: A Pollyanna about Tuesday’s outcome

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I have not said much about the American election because not my circus, not my monkeys, and I really can’t get worked up about a contest I have no say in, however, comments made by the US ambassador to Canada this weekend have utterly boggled my mind. “I firmly believe that regardless of the outcome of the election, the United States is going to remain the most durable democracy in the world,” David Cohen said, and went on about how democracy will “easily” survive whatever the outcome of that election.

No. America has been teetering on the brink of autocracy for a while now, and while I get that his job is to be blandly reassuring as the ambassador, this just smacks of being a giant Pollyanna. And for Canada, where so much of what happens in the US leaks over the border and affects our politics here, those autocratic impulses are not far behind either. We already have provincial governments using tactics lifted directly from the authoritarian playbook, as is Pierre Poilievre, and he’s not shy about it either. And if America stops defending other democracies around the world under an autocratic regime, things are going to get very difficult indeed as these democracies are under threat from Russia and other autocratic actors who want to break them in order to show their own populations that democracy doesn’t work, so better to suck it up and live with the corruption of their autocratic states. And then there is Trump’s vision of NATO as a protection racket, that he fully intends to upend, and already Viktor Orbán is salivating at the thought of a Trump victory handing Ukraine to Russia, destroying a democracy the way he has been doing in Hungary.

There will be consequences, and I don’t think it helps anyone for Cohen to shrug it off like that.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb hit a supermarket in Kharkiv, injuring at least five. Ukrainian forces destroyed 66 out of 92 Russian drones sent into the country overnight Saturday, and fortunately, no casualties were reported. Russians have also taken control of the village of Vyshneve in the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian forces hold back one of the most powerful offensives since the start of the invasion.

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Roundup: Lies about Brookfield to own the Libs

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For the past couple of days, the Conservatives have been trotting out new talking points about Mark Carney, and the fact that Brookfield Asset Management plans to move their head office to New York, but absolutely everything the Conservatives say about the move is false. The move is because they want easier access to New York stock indexes, but it remains incorporated in Canada, it’s not changing its operations, strategic plans, or tax treatment. Everything that Poilievre and his MPs have said about this is a lie, and they are utterly brazen about it.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives keep trotting out claims of the Liberals’ so-called “economic vandalism,” particularly in the resource sector. But again, this is utter bunkum.

It’s lies all the way down. But does legacy media say absolutely anything? Nope. The Elder Pundits? Are you kidding? They just keep shrugging it off, but when the Liberals stretch credulity with their own talking points? Well, that’s a scandal. Honest to Zeus, you don’t need to recreate what’s happening in the US. There is no “good parts only” version. Stop pretending there is.

Has Poilievre said a truthful thing ever? Nope.Have the Liberals stretched credulity with their recent talking points. Yup. Has the Post ever freaked out about the former as they have the latter? Of course not. There are two standards being applied.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-02T02:30:49.830Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile attack on Kharkiv killed a police officer and injured 40 others. Over the course of October, Russia attacked Ukraine with 2,023 drones. Ukraine’s ability to produce more mortar shells is being stymied by a global shortage of explosives. President Zelenskyy is calling on allies to take action to tackle the presence of North Korean troops in Russia before they engage in combat. From Ottawa, South Korea’s foreign minister said that all scenarios are under consideration for aiding Ukraine because the North Koreans have entered the field.

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Roundup: Ford’s inaction on housing

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While so much of the focus in Ontario over the past few days has (deservedly) been about Doug Ford’s plan to send $200 cheques to everyone ahead of an early election call in order to buy votes (rather than doing anything about healthcare, education, universities, crumbling infrastructure, you name it), it has obscured from the reports that Ontario is not only badly missing its housing targets—it’s getting worse.

Housing is very much a provincial responsibility. That is the level of government that has the tools and the levers to affect housing, whether it’s legislating the zoning changes that cities are reluctant to engage in, or using their spending powers to build or repair social housing (like they’ve been promising to since the late eighties), or any number of things. Is Ford doing any of it? Nope. Are they banning municipalities from forcing excessive development charges that are raising the cost of housing? Nope. Are they doing absolutely anything other than trying to pad their housing numbers with long-term care beds? Nope. But instead, all of the blame continues to be put on Justin Trudeau for the housing situation, never mind that he has vanishingly few levers at his disposal (and when he points that out, every media outlet in the country freaks out and insists that he must somehow create some, because reasons).

Meanwhile, as Pierre Poilievre promises to cut two of the existing federal housing programmes to fund his GST cut on new houses under $1 million, here’s Mike Moffatt explaining why those programmes are necessary and why they should be adjusted and not cut, not that Poilievre is going to listen.

Ukraine Dispatch

The death toll from the Russian strike on a high-rise in Kharkiv have risen, and children are among the dead. Russians also attacked a strategic bridge in the Odesa region overnight. American intelligence indicates that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, and that they are expected to enter the fight against Ukraine in the coming days. President Zelenskyy has blasted allies’ “zero” response to the arrival of these North Korean troops.

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QP: The worst Halloween-themed response imaginable

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Neither the PM nor his deputy were present today, which was probably just as well considering what an absolute pathetic mess yesterday’s QP turned out to be. Most of the other leaders were also absent, but Pierre Poilievre was present and started off in French, and he selectively quoted the GDP figures released this morning, and claimed this was the government “destroying” the economy. Jean-Yves Duclos noted that inflation, interest rates and unemployment are all down, but it being Halloween, children should be afraid that Poilievre refuses to get his security clearance. Poilievre countered that diminishing paycheques are what is scary, took credit for all housing starts when he was “minister,” and demanded the government accept his GST proposal. Duclos noted that children could count to six, which were the number of affordable housing units he built as “minister” (not really true), and repeated the security clearance point. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his selective economic doom and demanded an election, to which Randy Boissonnault recited the good economic news about inflation. Poilievre gave some specious comparisons to American economic data, and this time Boissonnault recited the security clearance talking points. Poilievre continued to make facile and false claims about the economy, and demanded the government cut taxes. Boissonnault recited a bunch of non sequitur talking points about foreign direct investment in return.

Claude DeBellefeuille led for the Bloc, and demanded the government enrich OAS for all seniors, to which Marc Miller noted that the Bloc has consistently all measures the government has put forward to help seniors, including dental care. DeBellefeuille took a swipe at Duclos before repeating the demand, and this time Duclos said that they are simply looking for problems before noting that they have reduced seniors’ poverty since they came to office, and offered a warning about cozying up to Conservatives.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP to worry about software used by landlords to raise rents, and demanded an inquiry be launched. François-Philippe Champagne said he would ask the Competition Bureau do just that with the new powers they have been given. Bonita Zarrillo demanded the same in English, and Champagne repeated that they are going to ask the Bureau to do so.

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Roundup: The PBO’s new NATO numbers

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The PBO is at it again, and he released a report yesterday on his particular calculations about how Canada could get to our stated NATO goals of 2 percent of GDP by 2032-33, and that we would need to double defence spending to get there, and what that looks like if the government remains committed to its deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio targets. Fair enough, but there are a number of capital commitments in the works that include new submarines, and one has a pretty good bet that these costs will only increase as time goes by, for what it’s worth.

While this is all well and good, there was some particular language in the report that should raise some eyebrows, because Yves Giroux is talking about how other economic forecasts are “erroneous” and he is insisting therefore that his aren’t, which is…a choice. In his previous report on defence spending, Giroux went on a whole tangent about how the OECD figures used as the baseline weren’t correct and his numbers were, but NATO uses those OECD figures for their purposes, not the PBO’s. For the sake of an apples-to-apples comparison, you would think that he would use the same denominator as NATO does, but of course not. Giroux has a particular sense of hubris around his figures, and we all know what happened when he got them wrong with his first report on the carbon levy and then he tried to prevaricate and rationalize them away, and insisted there wouldn’t be any real changes when lo, there were some pretty significant ones.

While we’re on the topic, the 2 percent figure remains a bad one because the denominator—Canada’s GDP is much larger than many NATO members’, making that figure incredibly hard to reach, particularly as the economy grows, and the fact that any country could exceed that target if their economy crashed. Not saying we don’t need to spend more, because we do (and I would not expect the Conservatives to meet the target either as they pledge to cut significantly should they form government next), but we also need to keep some perspective.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces shot down 33 out of 62 drones plus one missile overnight, which killed at least four in various regions of the country, while Russia claims they downed 25 Ukrainian drones, as North Korea’s foreign minister travelled to Moscow. Last evening, a guided bombs struck a high rise in Kharkiv, killing a child. Russians claim to have taken the village of Kruhliakivka in the Kharkiv region.

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