Roundup: Preparing for the backbench rebellion

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In advance of Liberal caucus tomorrow, media is rife with attempts to figure out just how many MPs will be pushing for Trudeau to go, and it sounds like between twenty to forty, but nobody knows anything for sure, and much like the past two caucus retreats where the backbenchers were restive, it could all fizzle out by the end, because Trudeau apparently has some kind of magic he can weave when he’s in the room. This could also just be a means of applying pressure to force the PMO to start showing that they are committed to a change of direction or just showing that they are capable of change, but so far Trudeau’s response has been to double-down and stare down his naysayers, but you have to admit, that even twenty backbenchers being ready to push you out is a bad sign, and forty is an indication that you’re not able to read the room.

This of course has led to future leadership speculation, and jumping right into things was former BC Liberal premier Christy Clark, who says she’s taking French classes, but I find this whole thing a bit of a laughable charade. While I know of several federal Liberals who will vouch for her Liberal-status, she also previously mused about running for the leadership of the Conservatives save for her lack of French skills, and was also organizing with the “Centre Ice conservatives,” now the upstart wannabe party that Dominic Cardy is leading. On top of that, Clark’s record as premier is pretty problematic, so I would have some very big questions about just what kind of reception she thinks she’s going to get outside of the few Liberal insiders who knew her ack in the day.

And then there’s Mark Carney, who told Nathaniel Erskine-Smith on his podcast over the weekend that he’s planning to run for a seat at some point, but won’t say where and when, and is vague about a lot of it other than saying that this is because he owes Canada “a lot.” Of course, none of this changes the fact that as a former central bank governor, he should stay the hell out of electoral politics for the rest of his life, because of what it does to his successors and the institution. Central banks need to be scrupulously politically neutral because what they say needs to be believed if they are to control inflation.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks killed three people in Zaporizhzhia, and three in the Donetsk region. A Ukrainian drone attack damaged two distilleries in Russia, just south of Moscow. And this is what is known so far about North Korean troops joining the Russian invasion.

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QP: Conspicuous silence about India

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The first day back after a busy constituency week, and the PM was absent, though his deputy was present. Most of the other leaders were also away, but Pierre Poilievre was there, and he once again began in French to lament mortgage costs in Quebec, and complained that Trudeau was too worried about his own survival, before demanding an election. Chrystia Freeland said that she was glad the Conservatives were thinking about the economy, and she praised the fact that inflation has been tamed, which the Conservatives don’t want to talk about. Poilievre needed that Trudeau is facing a backbench revolt and demanded an election, to which Karina Gould noted that the Conservatives were trying to avoid another vote in the Chamber that they would lose. Poilievre switched to English to lament that people lined up in Cloverdale, BC, for “ugly potato day,” and used this to demand an election. Freeland noted that Poilievre was crying crocodile tears because he voted against their school food programme. Poilievre gave a more emphatic version of the same, and Freeland noted that the Conservatives were damning themselves by their intransigence, and described the launch of their school food programme in Manitoba on Friday. Poilievre was incredulous as this, accused the prime minister of being in the “fetal position” under his desk, and demanded an election. Freeland dismissed this as the Conservatives losing the plot, and their concerns about inflation Missed that his has been back in the target range for nine months.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demanded the government support the Bloc’s OAS enrichment bill. Steve MacKinnon said the Bloc have never voted in the interests of seniors, so this was disingenuous. Therrien then turned to the Supply Management bill in the Senate, and lamented that the prime minister was not pressuring senators, and Jean-Yves Duclos noted the government’s support for system all along.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, worried about foreign interference from India, and wondered if the PM had personally urged Poilievre to get his security clearance. Dominic LeBlanc said that they extended the offer, and that they are working to keep Canadians safe. Singh tried again in French and got much the same response. 

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Roundup: A tight election, but no change in government

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It looks like it’s a tight finish in BC’s election, and that there won’t be clear winners in some of the most contested ridings until later in the week, but right now it’s sitting at 46-45-2 NDP/Conservative/Green. And because a lot of people are civically illiterate, they need to be reminded that a) The NDP are still the government and David Eby is still the premier because he hasn’t resigned, and no, the lieutenant governor is not sitting around waiting for the results to declare who will form government. That’s not how the system works.

Eby will meet the legislature, whenever that happens, and his ability to maintain the confidence of the Chamber will be tested, and there will likely be some kind of supply and confidence agreement with the Green Party, but the real question is going to be who is going to put up a Speaker, because this could change the dynamics if there are no changes once the results are finalized. The Conservatives are unlikely to want to do so, and the NDP might order their caucus to refuse, leaving a situation where nobody comes forward, paralyzing the legislature. If that lasts longer than six months, that could trigger another election. (This was already a drama in BC after another election a few years ago, when the BC Liberals basically tied, and eventually one of their number broke ranks to run for Speaker, then Christy Clark lost a confidence vote, the LG refused her another election, and the NDP formed a government with Green support).

This having been said, I have already seen certain progressive types on social media declaring that if the Greens don’t use their kingmaker status in this legislature to push for electoral reform, they might as well not bother to exist. I’m unsure about the logic there because just what kind of electoral reform, and do they really think that ramming it through in a partisan manner in a minority legislature without consensus is going to work against them, and that the Conservatives won’t run in the next election howling about how the evil NDP changed the rules for their own benefit? BC is dealing with the far-right being *this* close to being in power (and make no mistake—the BC Conservative Party is a far-right party, and thus far it looks like four of their elected MLAs were previous People’s Party candidates). Giving them any ammunition is a Very Bad idea, and no, electoral reform won’t save you from the far-right. In fact, it might just wind up enabling them.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians have been targeting Kyiv with drones for a second night in a row. They hit Kryvhi Rih with a ballistic missile attack that injured 17, while they also claim to have shot down over a hundred Ukrainian drones on Sunday, but Ukraine says they hit an airfield and an explosives factory in Russia. Military bloggers report fighting in the streets of Selydove.

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Roundup: Another vice-regal safeguard?

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As the security clearance discourse carries on, we remain confronted by the false notions that Pierre Poilievre is unable to receive a clearance, rather than the fact that he is unwilling, using the false claim that it’s somehow a “trap” to keep him from criticising the government. It’s not, there’s plenty of opportunity for him to criticise the government while being fully briefed, but as is the tradition with Canadian politicians, they have long preferred not to know because then they would have to be responsible in their commentary rather than bombastic, or as the Beaverton aptly put it, he would have to lie just slightly less than he already does.

Nevertheless, this turns to the question of what would happen if someone were to become prime minister, or at least win an election, where there are genuine security concerns about them? Well, Philippe Lagassé has an answer for that, and it lies in the reserve powers of the Governor General.

He makes a crucial point that it would be beyond the pale for CSIS and the RCMP to somehow have the veto over the appointment of a prime minister, but the discretion of the Governor General could conceivably be the constitutional fire extinguisher in such a case. It’s extremely unlikely to ever happen, but nevertheless, it’s a good thought exercise to consider given the times we live in.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck a residential district in Odesa on Friday, but there were no casualties. Residents in Kupiansk are fleeing ahead of a Russian advance in the area. Both Russia and Ukraine swapped 95 prisoners each in a deal brokered by the UAE. South Korean intelligence is corroborating Ukrainian intelligence’s claim that North Korea is now sending troops to right for Russia. Here’s a look at how far-right influencers openly used Russian money to make “documentary” hit-jobs on Ukraine and president Zelenskyy.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1847257217424113736

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Roundup: Scott Moe’s genital inspectors

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While I haven’t been following the Saskatchewan election too closely, but while on the campaign trial, incumbent Scott Moe promised anti-trans change room policies if re-elected. And I just can’t even.

Set aside for the moment the fact that this is a) the kind of anti-LGBTQ+ scapegoating that comes out of the authoritarian playbook; and b) that Moe has already told on himself with his previous anti-trans legislation whereby he not only pre-emptively invoked the Notwithstanding Clause, but also inoculated himself and his government from being sued for any harm that comes to trans people as a result of these policies, this policy is unenforceable, just like Danielle Smith’s similar pledge to ban trans women from playing sports in women’s and girls’ leagues. Is the plan from either premier that they plan to hire government genital inspectors before someone can enter a change room or play on a sports team? Or do they plan to let vigilantes do it for them and expose already vulnerable trans people to more violence?

And this is the real kicker—this very quickly spirals out from anti-trans panic to all-out assault on women who don’t conform to a preconceived notion of femininity at the hands of these vigilantes. There was a case last summer in BC where someone demanded that a nine-year-old girl who had a short haircut prove that she was actually a girl at a school track meet. This is the kind of harassment that Moe and Smith are promoting—now every girl with short hair, or small breasts, or who is a called a “tomboy” will need to subject herself to ongoing genital inspections to ensure that she’s not trans. And heaven forfend if a child was born intersex and is not easily sorted into this particular system. Is this the world that they actually want? It’s insidious and it solves not a single problem other than the ones in their fevered imaginations. And the fact that Moe thinks this is his Hail Mary pass in an election where he can’t defend his own record speaks volumes about where this kind of anti-trans panic has taken hold among voters on the political right.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 56 drones and a missile overnight against Mykolaiv in the south, attacking their energy infrastructure. Russia claims that they took the village of Maksymilianivka, but this has not been confirmed. President Zelenskyy told NATO members that their intelligence indicates that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops could be deployed on Russia’s side in the conflict, but no one else could corroborate this.

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Roundup: Implicated Conservatives and the lack of security clearance

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It was quite the day at the Foreign Interference inquiry, as Justin Trudeau was on the stand and dropped this particular bombshell: “I have the names of a number of parliamentarians, former parliamentarians and-or candidates in the Conservative Party of Canada who are engaged (in) or at high risk of, or for whom there is clear intelligence around foreign interference.” He also indicated that where his own party is concerned, he has been dealing with any accusations internally, which includes ensuring that those implicated are not being given certain committee assignments or so on, which to be perfectly frank, is how one should be dealing with it (though he could have said at some point that he was aware of the report and has been dealing with it internally). The implication in all of this was that Pierre Poilievre, who refuses to get security-cleared, can’t do the same and it’s bewildering as to why.

Poilievre immediately fired back and accused Trudeau of lying under oath (quite something, especially considering that Poilievre is an avowed liar who lies all the time), and demanded that Trudeau release the names, which denies anyone implicated any due process. After all, some of this is intelligence and not evidence, and subjecting someone who was naïve in an interaction with a diplomat to a kangaroo court is hardly fair and could have particularly profound consequences, especially considering the escalating violence toward MPs, and that they will be tarred as “traitors” when in most cases, as the National Security Advisor said last week, many have simply engaged in bad behaviour or are unwitting because they don’t know better, but it hardly escalates to espionage or sabotage.

Part of the subplot around Poilievre’s refusal to get security clearance is the fact that his chief of staff is cleared and receives briefings—but is not considered “need-to-know” on this, because he’s not the party leader, and that’s a pretty big deal. It shouldn’t be up to the chief of staff to deal with implicated MPs, senators, or candidates, or to do something like rescind a nomination as a result of these allegations. In fact, two former CSIS directors even stated on television that they wouldn’t brief a chief of staff if the leader didn’t have clearance because the leader is the principal actor, and needs to be able to act on what the chief of staff tells him, which again, means needing to be briefed.

Another subplot around that security clearance issue was a delineation between someone who is a Privy Councillor, as Poilievre is, and security clearance, which frankly hasn’t been properly articulated before, and created confusion as a result, particularly because there were instances in the past where opposition leaders were sworn into Privy Council before being given classified briefings. This doesn’t, however, change the fact that Poilievre has chosen not to get a clearance, not that he can’t, which is the difference.

Meanwhile, the Beaverton managed to once again hit on the truth of the matter better than any legacy media outlet.

“Getting it would require him to lie slightly less than he does currently.”Bingo.Yet again, the Beaverton can get to the truth better than most legacy outlets can.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-10-16T23:44:40.382Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The latest drone strike by Russia saw 136 drones launched against Kyiv and other cities, and 68 of those were shot down, with 64 others unaccounted for, while at least two struck targets. Russians claimed they took two more villages—one in Donetsk, one in Luhansk—but Ukraine says that those attacks were repelled. Ukraine has asked the International Maritime Organization to send a monitoring mission to the ports in Odesa among increasing Russian attacks on grain storage and port infrastructure, which threatens global food security. A former Canadian soldier currently fighting in Ukraine has been injured, but wants to get back to the fight when he recovers. And we finally have details on President Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan,” some of which hinges on an “unconditional” NATO invitation.

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Roundup: A $7 million ad buy to tell on themselves

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Over the past several days, the Alberta government has been on a very strange campaign where they are in essence, telling on themselves by lying about the forthcoming federal emissions cap. How so, you ask? They keep insisting that this is a production cap on the energy sector, which is not what it is intended to be, particularly because the sector has been saying that they fully plan to be net-zero by 2050, and that these kinds of rules, while disliked by economists, would essentially force these companies to put their money where their mouths are. And, well, they have certainly been admitting that all of those promises to meet those targets through things like carbon capture have been pretty much all talk.

When Danielle Smith and her ministers tried to justify their ad campaign, well, things got even worse for them.

Meanwhile, the Alberta government bought the front pages of newspapers across the Postmedia chain at a cost of $7 million in order to decry this same policy, and in another telling lie, claim that it would increase grocery prices, because that’s the anxiety that they want to hit on in order to really stick it to the federal Liberals. But again, the problem here is that the driver of those higher grocery prices is climate change, and in particular, recurring droughts in food-producing regions, including in Canada, with a few flash floods or hurricanes along the way that also damage crops or livestock.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on the southern city of Mykolaiv has killed one and injured at least sixteen. A drone attack was also launched against Kyiv. The town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, and three surrounding settlements, were ordered evacuated. Russians claim to have taken the village of Levadne in the Zaporizhzhia region over the weekend.

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Roundup: The PBO’s update won’t stop the disinformation

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The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s revised report on the distributional impacts of the carbon levy was released yesterday, and lo, it reconfirmed that indeed most households are better off with the rebates than what they pay—most especially the bottom 40 percent of households by income. It also showed a much, much smaller impact on the overall economic impact when broken out per household, which is a significant change from his initial report, and what the Conservatives in particular weaponized. They still are—Question Period was full of those same figures being mendaciously framed as costing individual households when it’s talking about the impacts on GDP when broken out into the abstract figure of per-household costs, which is not how the economy works, and yes, any climate action is going to have an impact on GDP, but inaction is also going to have an even larger impact. But lying liars are going to lie about what these numbers mean, because nobody will actually explain the difference to them.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1844402178200670530

With that in mind, take a look at the varied headlines, and guess the outlets:

As you can gather, at least one of those headlines is incredibly misleading, and unsurprisingly, some were framing this in explicitly the same terms the Conservatives are.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1844551195257446581

As well, Yves Giroux went back on Power & Politics to talk about his updated report, and thankfully David Cochrane gave him the gears for it, because he continues to refuse to take responsibility for the state of confusion and disinformation that his previous report has left the country and the political discourse in. I was also struck by the fact that he kept saying that these are the government’s own numbers—so what exactly is his office doing if they’re not independently coming up with their own figures as is the whole gods damned point of why the office was created? It just keeps reiterated how Giroux is completely unsuited for this job, and needs to resign because he’s clearly making the case for why this office needs to be abolished.

Programming note: I am taking the full long weekend off, so have a good Thanksgiving, and I’ll see you on Wednesday.

Ukraine Dispatch

Overnight attacks by Russia and those into Thursday hit civilian and critical infrastructure in cities like Mykolaiv and Kherson. There is also fierce fighting in the strategic city of Toretsk as Russians increase pressure on the eastern front. Ukrainian forces hit an ammunition depot in a Russian airfield in the Adygeya region, about 450 km from the front line.

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QP: Misleading about the updated PBO report

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The PM was still in Laos, and his deputy was off to Toronto, as was Pierre Poilievre, meaning only one of the mainline leaders were present today. That left Andrew Scheer to lead off, and worried about the rise in antisemitism and hate crimes, blamed Justin Trudeau’s so-called “divisive rhetoric,” and that it takes too long to list terrorist groups as such, giving the example of the Houthis. Arif Virani says that they denounced the actions of Samidoun in Vancouver, and that they are being reviewed for a designation. Scheer then raised the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s updated report on the carbon levy, grossly mischaracterised it, and cited numbers out of context before demanding an election. Steven Guilbeault quoted the report to point out that eighth out of ten households are net beneficiaries. Scheer insisted that Guilbeault was also misleading because he only focused on the direct costs and not the net economic impact. Guilbeault recited more passages that made his point that only the wealthiest are impacted. John Barlow took over to insist that the impacts were worse for farmers. Guilbeault cited grain reports that prove that droughts have reduced grain yields. Barlow cherry-picked another citation from the report and demanded an election. Guilbeault listed the indirect economic impact costs on things like farms, and that they had the support of different agricultural associations.

Claude DeBellefeuille led for the Bloc and demanded that the Senate be abolished because they weren’t passing a Bloc bill on Supply Management (and good luck getting the constitutional amendment to make that happen). Lawrence MacAulay recited his support for Supply Management and impressed upon the Senate to pass it. DeBellefeuille demanded that the two senators be brought into line (which is not how this works), and Marie-Claude Bibeau reiterated support for the sector.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and complained about “greedy CEOs” and Thanksgiving dinners, to which François-Philippe Champagne said that they should thank the government for reforming competition, and gave props to Singh for his contributions. Singh switched to French to give the same again, and Champagne patted himself on the back for summoning the grocery CEOs to demand action.

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Roundup: Inappropriate behaviour but no traitors

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Of the testimony at the Foreign Interference committee yesterday was the prime minister’s current National Security and Intelligence Advisor, who spoke about the allegations surrounding MPs in the NSICOP report. She stated that, having seen that intelligence and its updates since the report, she’s seen no indication of “traitors” in our Parliament. What she saw in the intelligence was inappropriate conduct and a lack of judgment in certain individuals, but no espionage, sabotage, or putting of Canadian security at risk.

This brings us back to the next steps in terms of any bad behaviour by MPs or lack of judgment, and what should be done about it, and once again, the answer is and always has been that the party leaders need to get involved. That means security clearances, and full briefings on the materials, so that they know what has been alleged, and that they can take corrective action in some fashion. (And before you say anything, yes Poilievre has a clearance as a former minister, but he has refused to be briefed under the specious reason that if he gets briefed, he’ll be “gagged,” which is nonsense and he knows it).

But as Philippe Lagassé points out, the chair of NSICOP also should have done more to be transparent than simply say what was in the report is enough, and leave it at that. Most people didn’t and won’t read the report, and media outlets taking those two or three sentences without context elsewhere in the document didn’t help either. Elizabeth May demonstrated that he could have gone further and said more without breaching any kind of confidentiality, but he chose not to for his own reasons, and so we’ve had months of suspicion for little reason.

#cdnpoli, all day every day.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-10-09T13:27:43.894Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit the port in Odesa, killing six, injuring eight, and damaging a Panamanian-flagged container ship. A further drone attack in the same region hit an apartment building, injuring another five. A Ukrainian drone strike has hit another Russian arms depot, which includes arms provided by North Korea.

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